Does 2+2 = 5G?

George Orwell: repeat 2 + 2 = 5 often enough and we believe it to be true

Conflating the current spectrum needs of the mobile industry with the future of connectivity is the public relations narrative of the day. So it was no surprise that yesterday’s announcement from the Commission on the “modernisation of telecommunications rules”, was heavy on the 5G rhetoric.

Others, like former head of R&D at Ofcom, William Webb, and telecoms veteran Peter Cochrane have already provided authoritative critiques of the concept of 5G. Their views represent a significant part of the technical community.

Still, when Roberto Viola, the head of DG Connect, the arm of the European Commission tasked with ushering in the future of an omni-connected “gigabit society”, says we’re “at the doorstep of 5G” and rehearses the Commission’s bold vision for the future of mobility, in which we’re all streaming content all the time in virtually every public and private space and thus firing the almighty J-curve of data demand, he has some stats to back it up. 

If reports by Cisco, Ericsson, the GSMA are correct, there is a steady rise in consumers’ hunger for data. Many contest this, however. And the so-called vertical industries that will be behind the next wave of data demand have yet to materialise, perhaps with the exception of automotive.

The problem is that 5G Mania is used to justify all sorts of things, like the mobile industry’s demand for more spectrum in the lower-UHF band in the form of supplementary downlink.

It is a flexibility option that, if it can secure the backing of the Parliament and the Council, will see an already crowded band flushed with even more noise. Particularly because to achieve economies of scale, some say it can’t be all that flexible.

And while some, like the European Broadcasting Union and the PMSE industry, might have reservations – or simply not be sold on the idea of a total-convergence future – the Commission has shown time and again that it will not let the worries of others unduly influence its decision making. It’s even willing to take its colleague institutions to court to ensure it gets its way on other issues.

But maybe the Commission has a point on SDL. Why should broadcasters rest on their laurels and enjoy valuable spectrum just because that’s the way it has always been? Perhaps rightly, one Brussels source told us recently how they are “amazed” that, for example, many Italian broadcasters have no plans for a more converged offering in future.

On the other hand, there is Finland, which has just backed its public broadcaster YLE, in cooperation with Nokia and Qualcomm, in an announcement that SDL can work in the UHF band, even if the demonstration only showed it working in 700 MHz, rather than the 470-695 MHz chunk where deployment is eventually hoped for in 2019.

LTE-broadcast, which was not part of the demonstration, can be used to send large event content to far more devices per cell than current unicast services like Sky Go can, and this is the main use case YLE wants to achieve.

We’re told the benefits for broadcasters will be increased services – targeted advertising, interactive TV, player cameras. And while the exact nature of the new business model between mobile and broadcast remains one of the greatest conundrums in telecoms, there is a feeling that the industries will, against all historical evidence, be able to work this out for themselves. 

But the spectrum has to go to mobile operators first. That, apparently, is something that cannot be left to chance.

And what of these “benefits for broadcasters”? Proctor and Gamble, the world’s largest advertiser, is scaling back its targeted adds because, by their own assessment, they don’t work. Content on the web is frequently of a lower quality, attention-grabbing “click-bait” grade that is hardly on a par with the higher aims of public service broadcasting. And are people really going to pay much for the few bells and whistles that extra content services promise?

Yesterday’s announcement looks set to include inspiring stuff, but as always, it is a future seen mainly through the eyes of the mobile industry.